As the calendar turns to January 18, 2026, millions of Americans are opening their mailboxes and email inboxes to find a new kind of tax document. Following the explosive growth of prediction markets throughout 2025—a year defined by massive volume in election contracts, Fed rate cut forecasts, and climate milestones—the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is [...]
The meteoric rise of event-based contracts has reached a legislative boiling point. Following a series of high-profile trades that appeared to anticipate classified government actions, Washington has responded with the "Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026." Introduced on January 9, 2026, by Representative Ritchie Torres (D-NY), the bill seeks to bring the [...]
As we look back from the vantage point of January 2026, the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election is increasingly viewed not just as a political realignment, but as a total disruption of the forecasting industry. For decades, traditional polling was the undisputed king of election intelligence. However, the 2024 cycle saw the emergence of the "Nate [...]
As of January 18, 2026, the landscape of American finance is undergoing a seismic shift that few saw coming four years ago. Polymarket, once the "offshore pariah" of the prediction market world, has successfully executed a multi-step regulatory maneuver to return to the United States. Following a period of exile that began with a CFTC [...]
In the span of just ten months, prediction markets have transitioned from a niche obsession of political junkies and crypto-enthusiasts to a cornerstone of the modern retail brokerage experience. As of January 18, 2026, the industry is reeling from a staggering milestone: Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) has processed over 11 billion contracts through its [...]
The era of "underground" political wagering officially ended not with a whimper, but with a gavel. As we move into the first quarter of 2026, the ripple effects of Kalshi’s landmark legal victory over the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have transformed the U.S. financial landscape. What began as a niche legal challenge in late [...]
The financial landscape shifted permanently in October 2025 when the Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), the powerhouse parent of the New York Stock Exchange, announced a staggering $2 billion strategic investment into Polymarket. This move didn't just inject capital; it effectively minted prediction markets as the new "truth engine" of global finance. At the time of [...]
On January 7, 2026, the global media landscape underwent a seismic shift that few traditional pundits saw coming. News Corp (Nasdaq: NWSA), the parent company of Dow Jones, announced an exclusive multi-year partnership with Polymarket, the world’s leading decentralized prediction platform. This alliance does more than just share data; it signals the definitive arrival of [...]
As the battle for the future of information markets moves from the betting floor to the federal courtroom, a new consensus is emerging among the world’s most active forecasters. On the social prediction platform Manifold Markets, a high-stakes contract titled "Will Federal Preemption Protect DCMs from State Bans by End of 2026?" has seen a [...]
The era of prediction markets has officially shifted from a niche experimental phase into a primary pillar of global finance. As of January 17, 2026, the industry is no longer just a "truth machine" for political cycles; it has become a high-velocity financial engine. Recent data shows the total prediction market industry hit an all-time [...]
As of January 17, 2026, the global financial landscape has fundamentally shifted. What were once dismissed as "gambling dens" for political junkies have evolved into the world’s most accurate "truth engines." The catalyst for this transformation can be traced back to a single, high-conviction figure from the 2024 U.S. election: the pseudonymous French trader known [...]
Starting January 21, 2026, the landscape of digital information and financial speculation will undergo a seismic transformation. Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) has officially announced a major policy shift, reclassifying regulated prediction markets from "gambling" to "financial products." This change allows federally supervised platforms to advertise their services nationwide across Google’s massive search and display network, [...]
January 12, 2026, will be remembered as the day the "invisible hand" of the market finally grew a voice. In a historic 24-hour window, global prediction markets processed a staggering $701.7 million in daily trading volume, a milestone that effectively signals the end of the industry's experimental phase. This surge wasn't just a win for [...]
The landscape of American finance and media underwent a seismic shift this week as Kalshi, the first regulated event contract exchange in the U.S., officially reached "Decacorn" status with a staggering $11 billion valuation. The milestone follows a massive $1.1 billion Series E funding round, signaling that what was once a niche corner of the [...]
A landmark study from Vanderbilt University has sent shockwaves through the burgeoning prediction market industry, delivering a rigorous autopsy of the 2024 election cycle that fundamentally challenges the "liquidity equals truth" dogma of modern finance. As of January 17, 2026, the findings are reshaping how institutional investors, political strategists, and retail traders view the reliability [...]
As we cross the midpoint of January 2026, the landscape of American finance and political discourse has been fundamentally rewritten. What was once a niche corner of the internet for statistics nerds and high-stakes contrarians has become the primary lens through which the public views reality. Today, "market-implied probability" is no longer just a metric; [...]
The landscape of retail finance has undergone a seismic shift, culminating in today's milestone as prediction markets move from the fringes of political junkies to the center of the mobile brokerage experience. As of January 16, 2026, the partnership between Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) and Kalshi has transformed "event contracts" into a multi-billion dollar asset class. [...]
As the winter legislative session kicks off in Albany, the future of prediction markets in the United States is facing its most significant legal challenge to date. Following the explosive growth of event-based wagering during the 2024 election cycle, New York lawmakers are now moving to implement some of the most stringent regulations in the [...]
On January 3, 2026, as U.S. Special Operations forces executed "Operation Absolute Resolve"—a daring nighttime raid on Nicolás Maduro’s compound in Caracas—the geopolitical landscape shifted in an instant. But while the world watched the dramatic extraction of the Venezuelan leader, a storm was already brewing in the digital trenches of prediction markets. Just hours before [...]
In a move that signals a seismic shift for Wall Street’s most storied investment bank, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) CEO David Solomon has officially signaled the firm’s intent to enter the rapidly maturing world of prediction markets. Speaking during the company’s Q4 2025 earnings call on January
As of January 16, 2026, the United States prediction market ecosystem has shifted from a speculative niche into a cornerstone of the modern financial landscape. Once defined by the volatility of election cycles, the sector is now witnessing an institutional-grade transformation. According to a landmark analysis by Citizens Financial Group (NYSE: CFG) and a detailed [...]
