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3 Reasons TXT is Risky and 1 Stock to Buy Instead

TXT Cover Image

Textron trades at $80.76 and has moved in lockstep with the market. Its shares have returned 10.5% over the last six months while the S&P 500 has gained 8.1%.

Is there a buying opportunity in Textron, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Get the full breakdown from our expert analysts, it’s free.

Why Is Textron Not Exciting?

We don't have much confidence in Textron. Here are three reasons we avoid TXT and a stock we'd rather own.

1. Long-Term Revenue Growth Disappoints

Examining a company’s long-term performance can provide clues about its quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but the best consistently grow over the long haul. Unfortunately, Textron’s 2.3% annualized revenue growth over the last five years was sluggish. This fell short of our benchmarks.

Textron Quarterly Revenue

2. Slow Organic Growth Suggests Waning Demand In Core Business

In addition to reported revenue, organic revenue is a useful data point for analyzing Aerospace companies. This metric gives visibility into Textron’s core business because it excludes one-time events such as mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures along with foreign currency fluctuations - non-fundamental factors that can manipulate the income statement.

Over the last two years, Textron’s organic revenue averaged 3.5% year-on-year growth. This performance was underwhelming and suggests it may need to improve its products, pricing, or go-to-market strategy, which can add an extra layer of complexity to its operations. Textron Organic Revenue Growth

3. Free Cash Flow Margin Dropping

If you’ve followed StockStory for a while, you know we emphasize free cash flow. Why, you ask? We believe that in the end, cash is king, and you can’t use accounting profits to pay the bills.

As you can see below, Textron’s margin dropped by 6.9 percentage points over the last five years. If its declines continue, it could signal increasing investment needs and capital intensity. Textron’s free cash flow margin for the trailing 12 months was 4.2%.

Textron Trailing 12-Month Free Cash Flow Margin

Final Judgment

Textron’s business quality ultimately falls short of our standards. That said, the stock currently trades at 12.5× forward P/E (or $80.76 per share). This valuation multiple is fair, but we don’t have much faith in the company. We're pretty confident there are more exciting stocks to buy at the moment. Let us point you toward the most dominant software business in the world.

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