Fluence Energy has gotten torched over the last six months - since October 2024, its stock price has dropped 78.8% to $4.39 per share. This was partly driven by its softer quarterly results and may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.
Is now the time to buy Fluence Energy, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? See what our analysts have to say in our full research report, it’s free.
Even though the stock has become cheaper, we're swiping left on Fluence Energy for now. Here are three reasons why we avoid FLNC and a stock we'd rather own.
Why Is Fluence Energy Not Exciting?
Pioneering the use of lithium-ion batteries for grid storage, Fluence (NASDAQ:FLNC) helps store renewable energy sources with battery systems.
1. Low Gross Margin Reveals Weak Structural Profitability
All else equal, we prefer higher gross margins because they make it easier to generate more operating profits and indicate that a company commands pricing power by offering more differentiated products.
Fluence Energy has bad unit economics for an industrials business, signaling it operates in a competitive market. As you can see below, it averaged a 6.2% gross margin over the last five years. That means Fluence Energy paid its suppliers a lot of money ($93.84 for every $100 in revenue) to run its business. 
2. Free Cash Flow Margin Dropping
Free cash flow isn't a prominently featured metric in company financials and earnings releases, but we think it's telling because it accounts for all operating and capital expenses, making it tough to manipulate. Cash is king.
As you can see below, Fluence Energy’s margin dropped by 5.2 percentage points over the last five years. Almost any movement in the wrong direction is undesirable because it is already burning cash. If the trend continues, it could signal it’s becoming a more capital-intensive business. Fluence Energy’s free cash flow margin for the trailing 12 months was negative 6.8%.
3. Short Cash Runway Exposes Shareholders to Potential Dilution
As long-term investors, the risk we care about most is the permanent loss of capital, which can happen when a company goes bankrupt or raises money from a disadvantaged position. This is separate from short-term stock price volatility, something we are much less bothered by.
Fluence Energy burned through $172.5 million of cash over the last year. With $631.7 million of cash on its balance sheet, the company has around 44 months of runway left (assuming its $392.1 million of debt isn’t due right away).
Unless the Fluence Energy’s fundamentals change quickly, it might find itself in a position where it must raise capital from investors to continue operating. Whether that would be favorable is unclear because dilution is a headwind for shareholder returns.
We remain cautious of Fluence Energy until it generates consistent free cash flow or any of its announced financing plans materialize on its balance sheet.
Final Judgment
Fluence Energy’s business quality ultimately falls short of our standards. After the recent drawdown, the stock trades at 4.8× forward price-to-earnings (or $4.39 per share). This valuation multiple is fair, but we don’t have much faith in the company. We're fairly confident there are better investments elsewhere. Let us point you toward one of our all-time favorite software stocks.
Stocks We Would Buy Instead of Fluence Energy
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